Predictions for the Political Future

Looking back to 2005, I wonder what I would have predicted for the political trends of 2015. Of course it is tempting to inflate my success score (I did sort of predict 9/11 a couple of years before it happened, so at least I have that,) but here’s my attempt to be honest:

1. A variety of issues like abortion and the Middle East will remain prominent. Check.

2. Gay marriage is guaranteed, sooner or later. Check.

3. Transgender issues will never break into the mainstream, because there just aren’t that many trans people. Nope. Transgender issues have become oddly prominent.

4. Increased concern for the environment/global warming/alternative energy/peak oil. Nope.

5. Democrats focus on poverty/labor issues of the Occupy Wall Street variety. Nope. That’s been abandoned for anti-racism.

6. Internet feminism will be a growing political force. I give this a sort-of check, because internet feminism actually got much bigger than I expected, and then slid into anti-racism, which I didn’t expect. I should have, though. People were talking about it.

7. I was concerned at the time with over-criminalization/over-regulation destroying the country, but wouldn’t have predicted that anyone but me would care about these things. I’ve since discovered that I can always bond with my Republican relatives by complaining about over-regulation of small  businesses, and the Black Lives Matter movement has at least noticed some aspects of the over-criminalization.

8. I did not predict the demise of libertarianism due to the rise of SJWs pushing anti-racism on the left and the the alt-right / neoreaction response.

9. I did not see ISIS coming.


So I got to thinking, what do I predict for the future? Can I do better? I’m going to write down my predictions for 2025 now, so I can check back in a decade:

1. The government attempts to cut prison population by, say, 25%, between now and then. This is not to say that they will succeed, but that this will be their goal. The easiest methods will be paroling/releasing inmates, cutting sentences, and legalizing drugs, but there will also be some push to just arrest fewer people.

2. In a related move, schools will attempt to equalize punishments by race. It won’t work.

3. Large numbers of African-Americans moved out of slums in places like Detroit and into suburban neighborhoods in places like Seattle. This will result in lower crime in Detroit and higher crime in Seattle, triggering more white flight.

3. By 2025, government will have begun reversing its imprisonment policy to deal with a 1980s-style crime wave.

4. California’s budget will eventually collapse, though probably not within ten years. A large % of people in the state will be working (and living) “under the table”, so to speak, both to protect their wages from taxation and because complying with tax laws and other regulations is a huge pain in the butt. Those who can’t work under the table will increasingly move out, driving up land prices/rents in nearby states. Without taxes, there will be no money for pensions, police, schools, infrastructure, etc. Collapse will end with the Feds moving in to take over the place and sort out the mess.

5. More generally, over-regulation and taxation will continue placing an enormous burden on businesses, especially small businesses, continuing the ossification trend that will make America an increasingly unattractive place to do business.

6. Sometime in the next decade, a 2008-style economic downturn and aftermath; pensions collapse generally.

Looking further out:

7. Increased violence in “El Norte” as Latin American drug and gang violence becomes rooted in the area.

8. The % of whites with IQs over 140 continues to decline; black IQ appears to be declining faster. High-IQ Americans will increasingly come from immigrant backgrounds.

9. Abortion, the Middle East, etc., will continue being issues just like they are now.

10. The Left fractures as Muslim groups grow powerful enough to insist on toleration for cousin marriage, polygamy, and Sharia law, and no longer support leftist ideological things like female empowerment, abortion, or gay marriage. The necessary compromises will make no one happy.

11. The current SJW-style racial narrative will move on to other topics as the growing Hispanic population starts throwing its weight around. Hispanics aren’t big on voting, but when they do vote, they’ll make a pretty solid ethnic block, and they won’t really care about black issues. Blacks will have trouble competing with Hispanics on the labor market and will get displaced from Hispanic neighborhoods. Hispanics will not have the same fear of looking racist in their dealings with blacks as whites have, and will be pretty open about this.

12. NRx as we know it will probably also be gone, as prominent bloggers get bored and move on to other projects.


ETA: I meant to ask: What are your predictions?

13 thoughts on “Predictions for the Political Future

  1. I must say that you generate content faster than I can analyze it. You might take this as a praise, I guess (or as my under-the-radar grumbling for more leisure time).


    • I can change the schedule if it’s too fast. Seriously, I didn’t really have any idea what a reasonable schedule would be when I started, I just wanted to have something regular so people would know roughly when to expect updates and so I wouldn’t start slacking off. I was thinking of going to an every-other day or MTWTF schedule, if that would be better for the readers. What do you think?


      • This is meant for your post concerning ‘climate change’ (to lazy to find it again): – scary as hell, isn’t it? It’s good that humanity is still unable to mess with the climate at such scales.

        What about the upper limit of seawater temperature? Longterm lethal conditions for conodont bearers or their prey would be obviously absent from the record. Bearer specimens living in fringe environments would be a rarity in the first place, so fossil record would be skewed against them as well. I don’t see that addressed.


      • I also noticed that Nick B. Steves missed a couple of posts (and was wondering where one of them was), and he tries to be very thorough, so output may just be too high for people to reasonably keep up with. Plus it does take a while to write some of the posts, and I want to be able to keep the quality high and not make a bunch of filler while working on longer posts, so I figure I’ll try the 5/7 days schedule and see how it goes. But thank you for your comments. :)

        To be honest, I don’t know as much about ancient life as I ought to. *Reminisces about mammoths.*


  2. “The Left fractures as Muslim groups grow powerful enough to insist on toleration for cousin marriage, polygamy, and Sharia law, and no longer support leftist ideological things like female empowerment, abortion, or gay marriage.”

    That didn’t happen in Europe for a long time. Initially there was a compromise where Muslims went along with the stuff they didn’t agree with in exchange for practical things like social centers, public funded sinecures and immigration policy. It’s only when they became numerically dominant in a specific area that they stopped pretending.

    Although it may be different if it turns out there’s no money to fund the practical stuff.


  3. I think your predictions are quite reasonable. A few modifications:

    1., 2., 3., – by 2015 “white flight” by 2025 will be verging on white enclaves. And FedGov will do very little about it because, well, civil war, and majority white police and military are VERY unreliable if ordered to do something.

    4. FedGov too broke and ineffective to sort out the mess. California broken into multiple states, and see above abut enclaves.

    6. Absolutely yes, but if so what will burn? Are white 65 and 70 year-olds capable of rioting? (The picture in my mind is scary and funny, at the same time).

    7. City-states, walls, enclaves. Americans ain’t Swedes.

    8. Maybe, in a longer time but not by 2025.

    10. – 11. You’re probably right, but sounds like war.

    12. Or, they’ll have their city-state.

    Overall, you are so right about most of this. I’m sending my son to Mars for school.


    • Thank you.
      1-4. Some will be in enclaves and gated communities (as many in large cities already are,) but there are still large, sparsely populated parts of the country like Idaho and North Dakota that may become attractive to whites.

      4. I suspect CA will go before the Fed gov., just due to CA’s tax system being completely crazy and the demographic changes putting additional strain on the system happening especially fast there. Fed gov probably has more options for shuffling numbers around, raising taxes, and borrowing money than CA, so potential collapse there seems less immediate.

      6. A lot of people are pushing increased immigration on the grounds that someone needs to pay for the pensions, and most young people feel kinda bad about cutting pensions on old people because they think it’ll mean grandmas eating cat food and dying of pneumonia in their unheated apartments in the winter. Pensions have absolutely got to be cut before they completely break the system.

      7. Walls and enclaves, yes. But America has tolerated a lot of crime over the years. Just look at what we let NY, DC, and Detroit become in the 80s.

      12. A city state would be a big change, too. ;)

      Good luck with Mars.


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